Economywide impact of Avian influenza in Ghana – A dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model analysis

Abstract

A dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model is used to quantitatively assess the economywide impact 
of HPAI in Ghana. The likely effect of an Avian influenza outbreak is modeled as demand or supply shocks to the 
poultry sector. The analysis shows that while the chicken sector is quite a small sector of the Ghanaian economy, the 
shock in chicken demand due to consumers’ anxieties is the dominant factor causing the fall of chicken production. 
The indirect effect on soybean and maize that are used as chicken feed is also large. Under the worst-case scenario, 
soybean production will fall by 37% and maize by 6.4%. However, the economywide impact on both agricultural gross 
domestic product (GDP) and GDP is very small. In the worst-case scenario, in which chicken production falls by 70% 
in 2011, agricultural GDP falls by only 0.47% and GDP is almost unchanged. However, the livelihood impacts of a 
HPAI outbreak could be significant for some sections of the population in Ghana particularly those involved in the 
poultry sector. Micro-level analysis of chicken producers’ livelihood, therefore, is necessary