The perceived impact of climate change and variability on smallholder dairy production in northern Malawi

Abstract

Farmers’ perception of climate change is very important for their adoption of adaptation strategies. This 
paper analyses dairy farmers’ perceptions of changes in rainfall patterns and its impact on dairy 
production in northern Malawi. Farmers’ perception was obtained through a survey and analysed using 
descriptive statistics, Chi-square test and a multi-nominal regression model. The accuracy of farmers’ 
perceptions was assessed with reference to actual rainfall data in the study area. The results revealed 
that majority (40%) of the respondents perceived that the amount of rainfall that the area had received 
over the past five years had increased. However, this was not supported by actual rainfall data. The 
farmers were also of the view that an increase in the amount of rainfall led to an increase in pasture 
production, water availability and milk production. Results from the multi-nominal regression model 
showed a strong relationship between milk production on one hand and water availability, and pasture 
production on the other. The results imply that dairy farmers in the study area do not perceive climate 
variability as an immediate problem and highlight the need to sensitize them about the current and 
projected changes in climate, their vulnerability and adaptation strategies.