Climate change risk on agriculture and response strategies by small holder farmers in Lake Victoria Basin, Tanzania

Abstract

Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) forms an important ecosystem which to a large extent maintains the flow of the 
River Nile waters, and supports agricultural activities in the region. Climate change is among major 
challenging factors to communities that depend on agriculture for their livelihood in the basin including 
Tanzania. This study investigated the current status of climate change in particular temperature and 
rainfall and their implication on people’s lives and potential adaptations required. A combination of 
methods was used including trend analysis of both temperature and rainfall data and risk assessment. 
Social economic data and communities perceptions on climate issues were obtained through literature 
review, discussion with key respondents, and household (HH) survey to 10% of total number of HH in 
selected case study village followed with Focus Group Discussion (FDG) and a stakeholder’s discussion 
meeting. Results showed that out of 21 and 30 years, from 1979 to 2008 and from 1985 to 2011 for Mwanza 
and Magu stations, only 11 and 10 years respectively had chances of receiving rainfall less than 400 mm 
during rainfall season. The risk of having seasonal rainfall less than 400 mm in 30 and 21 years time was 
found to be 40% for Mwanza and 47% for Magu. In both cases much observed were increased rainfalls 
showing climate change. In this case the risk was categorized as moderate. Although climate change risk 
in the basin is characterized to be moderate, communities are now experiencing negative impacts on 
agricultural and water sectors such as increased crop pests and diseases, change in rainfall seasonality 
and drying of water sources of which all affects both crops and livestock production. Although there are 
adaptations in place these need to be strengthened through capacity building of the local existing 
innovation systems.