Decrement table and the estimation of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) mortality rate with an application to hemophilia-associated acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)

Abstract

The human immunodeficiency virus/ acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic 
represents the most serious public health problem in India. There is no denial of the enormity of the 
problem. The available surveillance data clearly indicates that HIV is prevalent in almost all parts of the 
country. Hence, knowledge of HIV incidence is important to formulate sensible strategies aimed at 
controlling the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The objective of this paper is to estimate the probability of dying in 
the stage of HIV (Grover and Das, 2005) in a year without passing to the state of AIDS (HIV mortality 
rate). Secondly, a double decrement life table approach (Biswas et al., 2006) has been followed for a 
cohort of hemophiliacs who were at risk of infection with the AIDS virus. This device consists 
essentially of two decrements: HIV positive hemophiliacs either depart from the AIDS-free group by 
eventually developing AIDS or by dying from other causes; those who eventually develop AIDS either 
remain alive with it until they die from it or die from other causes. The distribution of incubation period 
of AIDS is based on a two-stage parametric regression model (Brookmeyer and Goedert, 1989), 
proposed for the analysis of cohort of hemophiliacs.